Madolyn Greve, Broker Associate, Callaway Henderson Real Estate

The dilemma facing would-be buyers today is to wait until things settle down or move ahead in this unsettling economic environment. More specifically, the question should be, what are you waiting to settle down: mortgage rates, or prices or both?

Mortgage rates haven’t been this high since 2002, so it could be considered plausible that the high rates are temporary. That leads to the question of how long before they do start coming down. If we look back further, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, dating back to April 1971 is 7.81%, so the current rate is lower than the 50-year average.

The other variable is waiting for prices to come down. That one is probably not as likely to happen. We have seen some softening of prices for homes on the market which is due to a decline in sales based on affordability and the resulting increase in inventory.

Sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November which is down 35.4% from one year ago, conversely, inventory has increased to 3.3 months from 2.1 months one year ago according to the NAR Housing Snapshot of Existing Home Sales.

While listing prices may be coming down, sales prices are still rising from the same month a year ago. The National Association of REALTORS� reported the median sales price for November 2022 is up 3.5% from November 2021.

Homes are expected to continue to appreciate and not come down in value albeit at a much lower rate than was seen in 2021, and even currently in 2022. Historically, homes have appreciated at 4% annually on a national basis.

Nationally, the NAR reports 42% of homes are selling at or above list price while 58% of homes are selling for less than list price.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS� at their recent annual conference, forecast home price appreciation for 2022 at +10%, for 2023 at +1% and 2024 at +5%.

Some experts are calling for a decrease in prices. Ivy Zelman, of Zelman & Associates, expects national home prices to fall 4% in 2023 and 5% in 2024. Goldman Sachs is expecting a 5-10% decrease in home prices from its peak. Fannie Mae is expecting a 1.5% drop in home prices for 2023. Freddie Mac predicts a 0.2% decrease in values.

Some consumers are anticipating another wave of foreclosures like the Housing Crisis in the Great Recession of 2008. While the number has increased, it is not expected to reach anywhere near those previous levels.

Homeowners facing difficulties with the labor market and affordability have a significant advantage over those during the housing crisis over a decade ago. Homeowners currently have record amounts of equity which give them options to borrow against the equity or to sell the home for more than is owed.

Returning to the dilemma facing many would-be buyers, "Wait until things settle down or forge ahead now?" Being able to afford a mortgage at today’s rates certainly factors into the decision. If inflation is brought under control and rates do return to "normal", or at least the new normal, a buyer would be able to refinance the home at the then, current rates.

Home price appreciation has been close or beaten inflation in each of the past five decades.

Decade	Home Prices	Consumer Prices
70’s	9.9%	7.2%
80’s	5.5%	5.6%
90’s	4.1%	3.0%
00’s	2.3%	2.6%
10’s	4.9%	1.8%
20 + 21	12%	3%
Source … NAR & Bureau of Labor Statistics

First time homebuyers represent 26% of sales in 2022 down from 50%, its high in 2009. This is the lowest it has been since NAR started the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers in 1981. Desire to own a home is the prevalent reason 62% of first-time buyers cited.

Holding onto cash during high inflationary times is not good because the purchasing power of the cash dwindles because the same dollar is able to buy less. Moving money into hard assets, like real estate, allows the person to benefit from the inflation on a large asset. The leverage from using borrowed funds to finance the purchase creates leverage that additionally works in favor of the buyer.

Download our updated Buyers Guide and connect with your agent to discuss your options.

Inflation devalues the purchasing power of money and the interest earned on savings is almost always less than inflation. Tangible assets like your home consistently become more valuable over time. In inflationary periods, a home is a good investment and a hedge against inflation.

Borrowing money at fixed rates during times of inflation can be very advantageous…like buying a home. The rate stays the same over the term of the mortgage and so does the payment instead of going up at the rate of inflation.

In September 2022, rents rose by 7.2% according to NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun and "rents are accelerating to higher figures with each passing month." The annualized rate for this year is 10.6%. Buying a home allows you to avoid rent increases while enjoying property appreciation.

The housing shortage that is fueling the price appreciation, as well as increases in rent, is something that has existed for over ten years, yet American home building has not kept pace with population growth.

When you are repaying the mortgage, you are using dollars that are worth less and less due to inflation. Home Price Appreciation has been close or beaten inflation in each of the past five decades.

Decade	Home Prices Average Annual Increase	Consumer Prices Average Annual Increase
70’s	9.9%	7.2%
80’s	5.5%	5.6%
90’s	4.1%	3.0%
00’s	2.3%	2.6%
10’s	4.9%	1.8%
20 + 21	12%	3%
22	13.4%*	8.2%

*Revised predictions for 2022 home price appreciation are: Fannie Mae estimating 16%; Freddie Mac 12.8%; NAR 11.5%. Average of three projections is 13.4%

The funds for the down payment and closing costs that are sitting idle in a bank, while an otherwise qualified buyer waits to see what happens in the market, are having their value eroded by inflation. At the current rate of inflation, $48,000 would be worth $39,073 in three years. In seven years, it would be worth $29,697.

A 90% mortgage at 6.3% for 30-years on a $400,000 home that appreciates at 4% a year will have an estimated equity of $202,000 in seven years due to appreciation and amortization. That is a 22.8% annual rate of return on the down payment plus $8,000 closing costs. That is a significant hedge against a current inflation of 7.1%.

The borrowed funds in the mortgage produce leverage for the homeowner to enjoy the benefits as the value of the home goes up while the unpaid balance goes down with each payment made due to amortization.

Every day, a renter, who is otherwise qualified to purchase a home, is faced with a decision to continue renting or buy a home. Renters will ultimately be facing an increase in their rent, feeling an erosion of the purchasing power of their funds, and experiencing an opportunity cost by not benefitting from the appreciation and amortization benefits of buying a home.

Let’s connect and talk about what opportunities are available now and options that could benefit you, even considering the volatile economic atmosphere we’re all facing.

Credit scores are used to assess risk and determine whether a borrower is approved or declined for a mortgage, credit card or some other type of credit. The score is a numerical value ranging from a low of zero to a high of 850 or 900 depending on the credit bureau.

The higher the score, the more likely the lender will be repaid in a timely manner.

1. A higher credit score could help you get a lower interest rate
2. You can get a free credit report from all three major bureaus at www.AnnualCreditReport.com.
3. Your credit score doesn’t have to be perfect to get a loan … most lenders want buyers to have a minimum of 620 but FHA will consider as low as 500
4. Credit utilization, the percentage of credit used compared to what is available, should be kept below 30%; amounts higher could negatively affect your credit score.
5. There is a difference between a soft and a hard credit pull. The former doesn’t hurt your score, but the latter can lower it a few points. Try to avoid multiple hard inquiries.
6. Credit cards, bank loans, car loans and home loans are considered "good credit" and a mixture of different types is helpful compared to only a car loan.
7. Opening new credit accounts after you apply for a mortgage can hurt or even prevent you from being approved on the mortgage.

There are five components to making up a credit score. 35% of the weighted average is determined by payment history like paying on time. The next highest item is the amount owed and counts for 30% of your score. This component deals with credit utilization which is expressed as a percentage of what you owe divided by what is available.

The length of time you have had credit established accounts for 15% of the score. New credit and the types of credit accounts are weighted at 10% each. Opening several accounts in a relatively close period will negatively affect your score. While it isn’t necessary to have all types of credit like credit cards, installment loans, finance company accounts and mortgage loans, the types of credit in the mix are evaluated.

If you need help increasing your score, a trusted lender that provides your pre-approval can also make suggestions that would improve your credit. Contact your real estate professional to get a personal recommendation of a trusted mortgage lender.

Waiting for the mortgage rates to come down before you buy a home may not be a good decision.

If you are correct, and the rates do come down by two percent, the savings you benefit from a lower rate will most likely be devoured by the appreciated price increase.

As of 12/8/22, the 30-year fixed-rate was at 6.33% which is close to the highest level since mid-2008. If the rate drops to 4.7% in three years but the price increases by 5% a year, a $400,000 home today, will cost $463,050 three years from now.

An increasingly, popular option that more buyers are considering is to purchase the home today with an adjustable-rate mortgage that could give them a 5.00% rate for five years. Then, refinance to a fixed rate when rates come down.

Not only will the buyer have lower payments with the ARM, but the buyer will also own the home, and benefit from the appreciated prices which will build equity in the home and increase their net worth.

Mortgage rates have increased over 3% in the first three quarters of this year. Some would-be buyers are wishing they had a do-over so they could get into a home at a lower rate. The current differential between the fixed and adjustable rates could lower the monthly payment.

The lower adjustable-rate could save a buyer $300 a month during the first period of five years. At any point during that period, they could refinance at a better interest rate should it become available. However, if the rates do start trending down, the homeowner might decide not to refinance because the rate on the ARM would have to go down at the next adjustment period to reflect the lower of rates in the market.

Mortgage rates have been low since the housing crisis that caused the Great Recession. The government kept them low to build the economy. Then, the Pandemic threatened the economy, and the government spent a tremendous amount of money to bolster it which led to inflation which is what is causing the rates to increase currently.

When inflation is under control and back to acceptable levels, the rates should lower.

Home prices are a different situation. The recent rise in mortgage rates has caused home prices to moderate because it affects affordability. Inventories are still low and there is a pent-up demand for housing from purchasers unable to buy during the pandemic.

This coupled with millennials reaching household formation age and insufficient home building to keep up with demand for the last decade, prices are expected to continue to rise. The rate of appreciation could even increase when rates come down which would also affect affordability and demand.

Buyers who feel they missed a window of opportunity to buy before rates started increasing should investigate financing alternatives.

Opportunities exist for a subset of homeowners, possibly in their 60’s to 70’s, who want to downsize to smaller homes for convenience, less maintenance, change of lifestyle, or to save money. These homeowners are more likely to have large equities and will not feel the same constraints that are keeping younger owners in their homes due to the substantial increase in mortgage rates in the past year.

In some cases, there may be enough equity in their relinquished home to pay cash for the replacement. In other situations, the loan-to-value may be so low that even with higher mortgage rates, it won’t be as expensive as purchasing with a minimum down payment.

Some downsizers may be moving from a high-cost area to a lower-cost area where they can get more home for the dollar and may even be able to free up cash for investment or special projects.

It is more likely that older homeowners are living in a property above the median price. If a seller has a $750,000 home with no mortgage and they’re wanting to downsize to a $400,000 home, 7% mortgage rates are probably no concern at all because they’re going to pay cash. In a situation like that, even considering sales costs on the relinquished home and acquisition costs on the replacement home, there will be cash proceeds available.

If you’re considering downsizing, or possibly, have parents in this situation, feel confident that you have different options than first-time buyers becoming a homeowner. Your equity and the fact that you’re buying a smaller home can help you achieve your objectives even in a volatile market.

Let’s connect and explore the different options that are available.